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The Social Analyst is a weekly column by Mashable Co-Editor Ben Parr, where he digs into social media trends and how they are affecting companies in the space.
On Thursday, Apple will unveil iPhone OS 4.0. It’s not the only thing the company is expected to reveal, though. As we wrote last week, Apple is slated to launch its iAd mobile advertising platform, based off of its acquisition of Quattro Wireless in January.
If true, the move would place Apple into direct competition with Google (), whose acquisition of AdMob is still pending regulatory approval. Online advertising is Google’s bread-and-butter, perhaps even more than search. It has millions of advertisers, endless streams of data, and seasoned advertising talent at its disposal.
So does Apple, whose specialty isn’t advertising, stand a chance in a duel to the death with the Google juggernaut? The answer is a surprising “yes”, depending on what shape iAd takes and how the iPhone vs. Android () battle plays out. It’s fighting a more experienced competitor, though

Apple Has a Head Start

 

While Google may have the talent and the experience in advertising, Apple has the head-start in mobile, which could make all of the difference in this battle.
While very few details have been revealed concerning iAd, there are a few assumptions we can logically make. First, it will be based around the iPhone OS (and thus it’ll be designed for the iPhone and iPad, at least initially). Second, it will incorporate features that made the iPhone App Store () a smash hit, likely including a 70/30 revenue split or something similar. Finally, it’ll incorporate a great deal of Quattro Wireless’s ad delivery technology.
What does that mean, though? It means that Apple has a larger user base for launching its mobile platform and has greater access to mobile advertising technology than Google. The search giant can’t utilize its AdMob acquisition yet, while Apple’s had several months to integrate Quattro’s technology into its own platform. And while Android is growing, the iPhone still has much more market share.
Even if and when the AdMob deal is finalized, Google will have a lot of catching up to do. It also won’t have the scale of the iPhone for its launch.
 How Will Google Counter?

How Will Google Counter?

 

Google threw the first punch by acquiring AdMob, but now Apple has thrown a nasty left hook and an uppercut with its Quattro Wireless acquisition and the likely launch of iAd this Thursday. How will Google counter these blows?
First thing’s first: Google needs to convince the FTC that its acquisition of AdMob isn’t anticompetitive. The result of the FTC’s review is anybody’s guess.
Second, Google needs to move quickly to create an advertising platform for apps based off AdMob’s technology.
Finally, Google needs to use both its technology and AdMob’s technology to create a stronger web-based advertisement platform. Whoever gets ad optimization for iPhone, iPad, and Android right is going to be in a far better position than its competition.
Google’s greatest advantage against Apple is that it has more relationships and experience with web-based advertising, and it already has the technology to back it up (in fact, AdSense has been mobile for years). It’s unclear how aggressive Apple’s iAd platform will be, but my bet is that it doesn’t really focus on web-based advertising, at least initially.

So, Can Apple Win? Absolutely. But Will It?

If tomorrow Apple launched an ad platform for iPhone and Google launched a comparable one for Android, Apple would win simply because it has a larger base of iPhone and iPad users to advertise against, making it more enticing to developers and advertisers alike. That advantage cannot be understated.That doesn’t mean Apple will win, nor does it mean that there isn’t room for two dominant mobile ad platforms. Google’s not going to give up the next advertising frontier without a fight, and it has the resources to turn it into a long-lasting slug fest. And, with Android’s rapid growth, it may not be that long until Apple’s market share advantage is minimized.
In the end, I think you’re going to see two dominant mobile ad platforms, one around the iPhone and one around Android. However, the key to this battle will be based around who can expand their reach onto other platforms (BlackBerry, Symbian, etc.) the fastest and can expand the most effectively onto the mobile web. Unless Apple has some tricks up its sleeves, Google’s experience in advertising and its relationships with advertisers gives it an edge that even Apple’s head start doesn’t beat.
I believe that this will be one of the most interesting technology battles of 2010.